Mapping socio-spatial transformation: tracing population demographics, mobility and inequality across time

Abstract Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing a rapid transition from predominantly rural to urban societies, with urban populations projected to exceed 50% by 2050. While existing research has largely focused on capital cities, the dynamics of secondary cities remain underexplored despite their growing demographic and economic significance. This study examines the spatio-temporal expansion and socio-economic dynamics of emerging urban neighborhoods in a secondary city, using Jimma, Ethiopia (population 239,022), as a case study. The research adopted a mixed-methods approach. First, multi-temporal satellite imagery (SPOT and Sentinel-2) from 2000 to 2022 is analyzed to map urban growth patterns and land-use transformations. The results show significant spatial expansion, with four former rural settlements (Kofe, Bore, Ifa-Bula, and Hora-Gibe) progressively integrated into the urban fabric. Built-up areas more than doubled, increasing from 1,037 to 2,246 hectares, accompanied by declines in agricultural land (−9.56%), forest cover (−1.29%), and wetlands (−1.24%). In the second phase, a household survey of 384 rural-urban migrants examines migration drivers and typologies. The findings reveal that migration to Jimma is shaped by a combination of push factors, including limited infrastructure, low wages, declining agricultural productivity, and conflict at place of origin, and pull factors, like improved urban services, better livelihood opportunities, and access to markets for small businesses, highlighting the increasing role of secondary cities as alternative urban destinations. These findings underscore the accelerating transformation of secondary cities and their growing importance in regional urban systems. The study highlights the need for proactive urban planning and infrastructure development to accommodate rapid population influxes and mitigate unplanned spatial expansion. Keywords: Spatial analysis, Secondary cities, Rural-Urban Migration, Neighborhood-detection, Jimma city

This paper presents the results of a field and statistical survey conducted primarily in Greece between 2022 and 2026, funded by the French School at Athens and the French Convergences Migrations Institute. The research aims to analyze how initial intentions, perceptions (opinions about Greece and Greeks), the consequences of obstacles (past persecutions, closed borders, discrimination, opinions of Greek people), and opportunities, potentially linked to life events (meetings, relationships, the birth of a child), contribute to determining whether or not Greece becomes the destination for future or permanent settlement. To this end, interviews and analyses of individual trajectories -at least 200- and statistical trends, and observations of political actors will be conducted. Greece represents a crucial stage for migrants (BATHAÏE, 2009). The survey involves interviewing non-European migrants in various regions of Greece (Aegean islands including areas of refugees camps, the Athens’ region, Thessaly, Macedonia, Thrace, and the Cyclades). This article will focus on the satisfactions and difficulties of migrants in different regions of Greece, which may help to explain their past, present and future geographical mobilities. mobilities. They are linked with past, present and expected living conditions and quality of life, so with poverty and socio-spatial inequalities ad discriminations (ARVANITIDIS et al., 2021). We will present methodological insights which led us to use specific statistical models (MCA) with references to others researches mainly published in English, French or Greek by various colleagues (PAPAILIAS / Παπαηλίας Θεόδωρος, 2022 ; SCHAPENDONK et al, “Re-routing migration geographies: Migrants, trajectories and mobility regimes”, Geoforum, Volume 116, November 2020 ; ARVANITIDIS Paschalis, , PAPAGIANNITSIS George, ZOI DESLI thina, VERGOU Penelope & GOURGOULINI Sofia, « Attitudes Towards Refugees & Immigrants in Greece: a nationallocal comparative analysis », European Journal of Geography, Vol. 12, Issue 3, 2021, pp. 039 - 055

More than three decades after the collapse of socialism, post-socialist countries continue to exhibit specific spatial patterns of internal migration and socio-economic stratification. However, detailed analyses of the spatial aspects of both processes remain limited. This study uses Slovakia as a case study to demonstrate how spatial autocorrelation methods can be applied to evaluate internal migration by age and educational attainment, as well as socio-economic stratification, across multiple spatial scales. The aim of this study is to identify and interpret spatial patterns of migration processes and socio-economic stratification using a combination of global and local spatial autocorrelation techniques. Global Moran’s I is employed to assess the overall spatial structure of selected indicators, while local indicators (Anselin Local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi*) serve to detect spatial clusters and outliers at local, and sub-local levels. Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (Space-Time Pattern Mining) is further used to capture the temporal dynamics of these processes and to identify stable, emerging, and declining spatial concentrations. The results highlight significant spatial differentiation in intra- and inter-regional migration, including patterns of decentralization and metropolization, as well as clear differences in migration selectivity by age and educational attainment. At the same time, the applied methods reveal clear spatial clustering of socio-economic characteristics, enabling the identification of areas with specific stratification profiles. The study presents a methodological framework for the application of spatial autocorrelation techniques in the assessment of migration processes and socio-economic stratification, offering detailed insights into their spatial organisation and evolution. Acknowledgement: Funded by the project VEGA 1/0768/24 “Multiscale assessment of spatial variability of social-economic population stratification”.

This research examines the spatial distribution of the foreign population across Greek municipalities over four consecutive censuses (1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021), using municipality-level data on the total and foreign populations, by gender and five-year age group. The aim is to look into the demographic implications of immigration and foreign presence in Greek municipalities over the past four decades, a period marked by persistently low fertility, population ageing, elevated mortality and, consequently, population decline since 2010. The analysis proceeds in two steps. First, it measures and maps the spatial concentration and demographic structure of the foreign population, with a focus on spatiotemporal gender and age differences. Second, it assesses the demographic profiles of the municipalities, according to their foreign population shares in relation to population ageing and fertility. To this end, we employ descriptive statistics and indicators, namely location quotients and spatial autocorrelation, in order to identify clusters and outliers in foreign settlement. The findings are expected to reveal a shift in the long-term trend of foreign settlement from the peripheral municipalities of mainland Greece towards Attica and the Greek islands, persistent spatial concentration in selected urban and peri-urban areas, as well as more diverse age structures in municipalities with higher foreign presence. This work aspires to contribute to spatial demography and population and migration research in Greece, by offering a framework for relating migration patterns to broader demographic change.

Abstract: Since the 1970s, family-related behaviours in Southern Europe have undergone significant changes. More specifically, a gradual increase in the frequency of marital dissolution has been observed, accompanied by substantial changes in social attitudes and perceptions regarding marriage and divorce. The present study comparatively examines marital dissolution and attitudes toward divorce in Greece, Italy, Spain, and France, highlighting both similarities and differences among these countries. The research is based on two main axes of analysis. First, a demographic analysis of the intensity and timing of divorce is conducted from the 1950s to the present, using both period and cohort divorce indicators (marriage cohort analysis). Second, attitudes toward divorce are examined using data from the European Values Study 2017. Descriptive statistics, chi-square tests of independence, logistic regression, and machine learning algorithms (XGBoost, Random Forest, LightGBM, and CatBoost) are employed. The findings indicate that France and Spain display higher divorce intensity and greater acceptance of divorce compared to Greece and Italy, where changes have occurred more slowly and are closely associated with institutional and legislative developments. Age, sex, religiosity, marital status, and perceptions regarding the institution of marriage appear to play an important role in shaping attitudes toward divorce. Machine learning models further identify age and religiosity as the most important predictors. Keywords: marital dissolution, attitudes toward divorce, Southern Europe, religiosity, demographic analysis and machine learning models

How is the topic of migration addressed in the texts published by the Italian Geographical Society during its first decades of activity? And from what perspective? This contribution aims to help reconstruct how the discourse on migration within the Italian Geographical Society evolved over time. Since its foundation (1867), in fact, the Society’s attention has also focused on the migrations (or emigrations) of Italians around the world, as well as on the movements of foreign populations toward Italy. Migration, therefore, has consistently permeated the geographical discourse emerging from the Italian Geographical Society’s activities, which can be traced through articles in the Bollettino and other publications, up to the present. The present contribution will focus primarily on the period from the Society’s foundation to the Second World War, while acknowledging the continued relevance of this topic nowadays. The texts, analyses, research and, more broadly, the narratives that emerge from this period of activity can constitute a significant discursive archive for understanding, on the one hand, how migration has contributed to shaping spatial imaginaries, population dynamics and socio-spatial inequalities and, on the other, how migratory experiences have been framed, remembered, narrated, transmitted and embedded within geographical culture of both that time and the present.

Rural depopulation in Greece has unfolded unevenly across space and time, producing differentiated settlement trajectories shaped by accessibility, historical contingencies, and shifting administrative frameworks. Capturing these dynamics requires spatially explicit, temporally consistent data capable of supporting multi-scalar comparison across changing administrative geographies. This project draws on a GIS-ready, georeferenced population dataset derived from digitised Greek census records (1928–2021), with a focus on the Peloponnese. By integrating settlement-level population data within a unified spatial framework and linking them to successive administrative geographies, the dataset supports consistent longitudinal analysis despite boundary changes. The analysis highlights distinct socio-spatial patterns of demographic change, including: (i) asynchronous population peaks across settlements, (ii) spatially uneven rates of decline associated with remoteness, connectivity, and differential access to economic opportunities, and (iii) divergent post-decline trajectories, ranging from persistent contraction to partial stabilisation. These patterns reflect broader processes such as post-war urbanisation, mid-twentieth-century emigration, and the reorganisation of administrative structures, but also reveal significant local variation that resists uniform interpretation. Through thematic mapping and multi-scalar visualisation, the presentation demonstrates how long-term demographic transformations can be traced across shifting spatial frameworks, enabling the identification of both regional regularities and localised deviations. While the underlying georeferenced dataset provides the empirical foundation for this analysis, this presentation focuses on its analytical application to mapping socio-spatial transformation and population dynamics over time, as part of a broader project involving the digitization of multi-year census data and the development of a geospatial analytical framework. Ongoing work extends the dataset to the national scale.

In Europe, the study of geographical mobility, approached from different perspectives, has been the subject of scientific research in the fields of geography, spatial demography and spatial econometrics in recent decades. In Greece, intense mobility is recorded, which changes the intensity and characteristics of the local populations, with differentiations of urban and rural space, reshapes the physiognomy of the areas and leads to uneven developments and typologies. In the context of this work focusing on rural space, it is proposed to investigate the levels of phenomenal migration at a low spatial level (municipal units) during the recent inter-census period (2011-2021). The study aims to investigate the intensity of the phenomenon and the possible existence of different and distinct groups of territorial units.

Labour Market Areas (LMAs) are increasingly used in regional and transport planning because they can capture the geography and function of labour markets more effectively than administrative boundaries. Traditionally, LMAs are delineated through commuting flows, using fixed thresholds to identify functional integration between municipalities, settlements, etc. Nevertheless, such approaches may overlook variations in spatial interaction potential, competition effects and the heterogenous attractiveness of employment centres. In this context, the present study examines alternative ways of identifying LMAs in the island region of Crete, Greece, by comparing the conventional commuting threshold method with a methodology based on a 3-step floating catchment area (3SFCA) framework combined with a modified Huff model and cluster analysis. Using data from the 2021 Population Census at the municipal unit (LAU-2) level, the first approach defines LMAs according to the traditional rule that areas are functionally linked when at least 15% of employed residents commute to a neighbouring zone for work. The second approach estimates probabilistic labour market interactions by incorporating both travel impedance, i.e., generalised travel cost, and the relative attractiveness of destinations through the modified Huff model formulation embedded in the 3SFCA method. The resulting interaction patterns are then grouped through clustering techniques to identify spatially coherent labour market areas. The comparison underscores important differences in the geography, size and internal structure of the resulting LMAs. While the traditional method identifies clear functional linkages based on observed commuting intensity, the alternative approach reveals more nuanced patterns of labour market integration by accounting for competition among destinations and spatial accessibility to employment. The outcomes can contribute to the discussion about the methodology of delineating LMAs. It can further offer useful insights for regional planning and transport policy in insular and peripheral contexts, where labour market interactions are strongly shaped by uneven accessibility and settlement structure.

This study addresses daily commuting as a dynamic component of spatial socio-economic stratification in Slovakia. It aims to analyse how commuting distances relate to the sectoral structure of employment and how these relationships vary across spatial scales. In contrast to approaches that rely primarily on static indicators of inequality, the paper emphasises the role of spatial mobility in connecting locations with differentiated employment opportunities. The analysis draws on municipality-level data on commuting flows and examines how commuting distances relate to the sectoral composition of employment defined by SK NACE classifications. A multilevel perspective is applied, comparing patterns at the regional level (functional urban regions) and local level (municipalities). This enables the identification of variations in commuting behaviour across spatial scales and economic sectors. Distance-based measures of commuting are combined with sectoral classifications to explore sector-specific mobility profiles. The analysis examines whether commuting distances differ across economic activities and how these differences relate to the spatial distribution of jobs and labour supply. The study highlights the analytical potential of incorporating mobility into the study of socio-economic differentiation. By focusing on commuting patterns, it aims to provide additional insight into the spatial organisation of labour markets and the processes shaping socio-economic stratification in Slovakia. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Scientific Grant Agency VEGA under project No. 1/0768/24: Multiscale assessment of spatial variability of social-economic population stratification.

This paper approaches energy poverty as a multidimensional form of socio-spatial vulnerability. Its purpose is twofold: first, to identify the key mechanisms that intensify households’ inability to secure adequate and affordable energy services; and second, to examine how these inequalities vary across space. The analysis is built on an investigation of the international literature focusing on the drivers of energy poverty, such as low income, increasing energy costs, poor residential energy efficiency, and the social vulnerability of specific demographic categories. The study focuses on households with elderly individuals, children, single-parent families, unemployed persons, tenants, and individuals from migrant backgrounds, as these demographics are more susceptible to energy deprivation. It also examines how building standards affect people's fundamental needs. It indicates that older buildings which are not well-insulated require more heating and cooling, that increases the cost of living and negatively impacts the quality of life. Additionally, this work investigates how urban, suburban, and rural areas, as well as small towns, are particularly vulnerable based on energy infrastructure accessibility, housing costs, climate, and population distribution. In general, energy poverty is not perceived as a distinct economic problem but as an indication of broader socioeconomic and spatial disparities. Its connection with demographic change, housing conditions, and unequal living environments makes it a critical field for understanding contemporary socio-spatial transformations. Identifying its determinants is essential for the design of targeted policies related to social protection, energy upgrading, and spatial justice. Focusing on these aspects can promote the development of more equitable solutions tailored to the specific needs of varied locations and social groups. This can help reduce energy deprivation and strengthen social cohesion during the current energy, economic, and climate crises.

This paper examines the dramatic urban, social, and demographic movements that Liverpool underwent between 1879 and 1926 from a political geography perspective, using the method of "urban history mapping." It discusses the constitutive role that the city's relationship with electricity played in this spatial and political context. The study analyzes how infrastructure processes, beginning with the 1879 Liverpool Corporation Electric Lighting Act, the UK's first electricity legislation, and centralized by the 1926 Electricity (Supply) Act, were applied selectively and hierarchically in different parts of the city, and how transportation (electric tram) lines affected the city's spatial development. This half-century period represents not only technological advancement but also a political and economic redistribution of urban space through "Private Acts of Parliament." Methodologically, the study questions the relationship between local council ownership, class, and demographics by mapping the spatial projections of local laws. The wide boulevards and electric tram lines developed by urban engineer J. Brodie increased urban mobility while simultaneously creating a new "hierarchy of accessibility" based on service access capacity. In this context, the electrification and transportation networks in commercially oriented port areas and affluent suburbs will be compared with "slum clearance" operations in low-income neighborhoods. The analysis discusses, through the lens of political geography, for whom access to infrastructure services has become a "right" and for whom it has become a "mechanism of control." Spatial analysis of regulations such as the 1890 Housing of the Working Classes Act and the 1905 Aliens Act investigates how infrastructure, as a tool of social engineering, has pushed poor and immigrant populations to the periphery of the city or isolated them in certain areas. Ultimately, this paper reveals, through maps, how infrastructure and legislative activities have institutionalized urban inequality in Liverpool.

This study investigates socio-economic spatial segregation within the Municipality of Athens, exploring how the urban landscape reflects and reproduces socio-economic inequalities. Athens is characterized by a unique model of "vertical segregation," while the Greek capital is currently facing new spatial challenges. The prolonged economic crisis, rapid gentrification, touristification, and shifting migration flows are actively disrupting traditional urban balances and horizontally reshaping the city's social geography. The primary objective of this research is to quantitatively and spatially document these emerging disparities across the seven (7) Municipal Districts of Athens. To achieve this, a Spatial Decision Support System approach is adopted, utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as the core analytical tool. The methodology involves the collection, processing, and integration of open census data and economic indicators for the years 2011 and 2021. The perspective of this study is to produce a series of thematic maps that visualize the distribution of key demographic, social, and economic variables. Rather than focusing solely on isolated indicators, the spatial analysis aims to identify geographical patterns, trends, and distinct clusters of social and economic segregation over the last decade. Ultimately, the research seeks to synthesize a comprehensive representation of intra-urban disparities, demonstrating the efficacy of GIS in analyzing sociospatial segregation. The findings aspire to provide a vital, evidence-based tool for local authorities to design and implement targeted social and urban planning policies in an increasingly polarized metropolitan environment.

Socio-spatial inequalities in Mediterranean cities have long been understood as producing relatively “soft” patterns of segregation, embedded within dense, compact, and socially mixed urban fabrics. However, emerging evidence suggests that these patterns may, in some cases, be evolving into sharper internal divisions. This paper revisits this question by examining whether contemporary dynamics are reshaping the traditionally cohesive structure of Southern European metropolitan areas, through an original case study in the city of Thessaloniki. Established literature on Greek cities like Athens, highlights a coexistence of social mixing and micro-scale segregation—including neighborhood-level differentiation and vertical stratification within residential buildings. The research develops a methodological framework combining multivariate statistical analysis with location quotient mapping. Findings reveal a persistent and longitudinally stable pattern of differentiation between the southeastern and northwestern suburban zones of Thessaloniki, suggesting a gradual consolidation of polarized spatial structures built upon historical procedures and a strong layer of spontaneous urbanization. At the same time, the metropolitan core continues to function as a zone of relative social amalgamation, accommodating diverse populations across income, age, and ethnic lines. Yet this integrative capacity is increasingly under pressure. Processes such as gentrification and the rapid expansion of short-term rental platforms are transforming central neighborhoods, potentially undermining their traditional role as social "connectors" within the urban system. From a planning perspective, these dynamics unfold alongside a weakening of metropolitan-scale governance and a shift toward localized, project-based interventions, often coupled with large-scale infrastructure developments implemented with limited social consensus and public participation. This transition risks reinforcing existing spatial inequalities, particularly along emerging east–west axes of division. Mediterranean cities may be entering a new phase in which historically diffuse socio-spatial patterns give way to more pronounced and structurally embedded forms of urban fragmentation.